I've seen a few people here and elsewhere talking about how great the Olwen S-rank bond ring is because of its Dire Thunder ability, which allows a unit on Player Phase to attack twice with Thunder. It definitely sounds strong, and I was interested to see how it played. However, after getting the ring and looking at the numbers, I don't think it's nearly as good as it seems, and doesn't deserve to define the early meta around bond rings. Below, I'm going to make the case for why.
TL;DR Dire Thunder isn't worth the effort, you're better off getting a Thoron.
Section 1 - Rigging Bond Rings
People have already noted on these forums that the order of bond rings in the Bond Ring Gacha is fixed. No amount of save-scumming after a battle will change what rings are pulled from the gacha, or the order in which they come. The order of ring rarity does not change even if you change the emblem that you're pulling rings from. So if you've pulled a B-rank ring, then two C-ranks, this order won't change, whether the three rings all come from Marth, or the first comes from Marth and the next two from Sigurd.
However, there are ways to manipulate this order. The one that has been most discussed is combat. Apparently, every enemy you kill moves forward the ring order by one - I haven't personally confirmed this, but it makes sense and evidence of this is on YT etc. I can also confirm that raising Bond Levels in the Arena changes the order. Specifically, for every Bond Level you raise, the order moves forward by one. So if you raise Clanne's bond with Marth from Level 1 to Level 5, the ring order will move forward by 4. This latter method is less time-consuming than combat, but requires the expenditure of bond fragments at an equal or higher rate than the gacha, meaning it's far less resource-optimal.
Onto Olwen specifically (mild spoilers below):
Spoiler
The Olwen S-rank ring belongs to Leif, who first becomes available after Ch. 8. However, he leaves your army directly after the Ch 10 story battle, and only rejoins after the Ch 17 story battle.This means that the first time you get Leif, you only have a limited window (as few as two Somniel trips) to pick up Dire Thunder before it's gone for another big chunk of the game.
When Leif first becomes available in the Somniel, Maddening players aren't likely to have more than 15,000 bond fragments or so (maybe more or less depending on DLC, donations, and how many you spend on bond levels and rings). Which amounts to 150 rings, if you're willing to spend everything for Olwen. I don't know what the S-rank ring appearance rates are, and there will obviously be big differences in personal experience, but it's clear you don't have a lot of time or leeway in which to pick up the ring before the spoiler thing.
While online trials count as combats for the purpose of moving the ring order forwards, only the ones requiring a NSO subscription (Relay/Outrealm) are available when Leif first arrives, and even with the DLC these will be difficult to cheese and are inefficient at providing enemies to kill.A significant investment of player time would be required to move the ring order forwards, with little-to-no guarantee of acquiring Olwen at all, let alone at reasonable cost.
Section 2 - Olwen Again
After the spoiler thing, Olwen becomes available only once significant time in-game has passed. In fact, the possibility of getting him again arrives one story chapter before a free Thoron. Given this, it'll be fruitful to compare Dire Thunder with Thoron at this point.
To optimise Dire Thunder, you want to fully forge up a Thunder tome, and likely add the Ike/Hector engraving to it (highest Mt boost of engravings so far). The cost of creating this is 150 Iron Ingots, 50 Steel Ingots, 5 Silver Ingots, 7500G and 100 bond frags. The money in particular is a significant cost on Maddening, but hopefully you have enough stocked up. Still, you'll get a Thunder with 13 Mt and 90 Hit, which can hit twice with Dire Thunder.
On the other hand, the Thoron you get for free can be forged to a Thoron+3 for 9 Silver Ingots, 3500G, and 400 bond frags for the engraving. If you have the resources to make the Thunder above, then you can exchange the Iron/Steel Ingots used there for Silver and have metals/money left over after you've made the Thoron. This tome will have 24 Mt and 75 Hit.
When everything else is equal, Dire Thunder should deal more damage than Thoron. However, this isn't how it works out in practice. There are two reasons.
- Enemy resistance. ForDire Thunder to deal more damage thanThoron when the Mag stat is constant, the magemust deal 12damage with a single thunder attack. This should always be possible for certain enemy types like armoured units, but won't be possible for many others. Mages, dragons, many story bosses and even some normal enemies with solidRes will suffer less than 12damage against Thunder at this point in the game - and that's assuming you're using a canon mage with decent-to-high base Mag (good luck Celine/Clanne). For enemies with really strong Res, even the fully boosted Thunder and a decent Mag stat will deal little-to-no damage, whereas Thoron and the same Mag stat will likely deal some damage for a while yet.
- The Thoron user can equip an Emblem. Olwen can only boost magic by +1, but Byleth, Corrin and Eirika can all do better, as well as boosting other stats to a higher degree and having abilities thatsynergise decently with certainmage builds. Camilla andSoren too.So the threshold for Dire Thunder to outdamage Thoron should behigher than 12 points of true damage, and the Thoron user could also fulfil another niche in your army while they're at it.
At least some of this, you could argue, is mitigated by Thunder's superior accuracy and Engage's hit rate system. Displayed hit rates of 50+ are not true hit rates (here's the table I've been using for them if interested:https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/True_hit). So, depending on your base hit rate, the true hit rate difference between the two tomes here could be as much as 22% on one attack. Which means it's certainly true that Dire Thunder allows for a much higher chance of dealing non-zero damage from a turn, and sometimes that's all you need - any damage is good damage. But when we consider the likelihood of Dire Thunder landing twice, compared to Thoron once, you're somewhere between 1-10% more likely (depending on base hit rate) for Dire Thunder to land twice. There's also the consideration ofinherited/personal/class abilities which benefit more from doubling with Thunder than singular Thoron, such as Resonance or Lindon's personal. They exist - but they're limited and often high-cost for inheritance. You could build around them, but I'd be impressed to see a skill combination that massively elevates the Dire Thunder build.
Those are still advantages not to be ignored - but remember the costs laid out above, and the scenarios in which Dire Thunder is strictly worse than Thoron. You're spending time (both in-game and real world), an extra 4000G when money may be tight, as well as potentially lots of bond fragments for the opportunity to boost hit rates somewhat, and boost damage against enemies you can already hurt significantly (perhaps with other tomes).
Section 3 - Olwen Straightaway
What about the lucky few who get Olwen immediately, or near-immediately after Leif arrives?
Remember, our cost for a fully souped-up Thunder is 150 Iron Ingots, 50 Steel Ingots, 5 Silver Ingots, 7500G and 100 bond frags. Which is possible at this stage, although fairly demanding for when you first get Thunder. I suppose you don't immediately have to spring for the +5 upgrade, but we'll keep this as the comparison because it's Dire Thunder at its most effective.
In comparison, if you bought a Thunder tome (without Silver Card) from the shop and forged it up to an engraved Thoron+2, you'd spend 200 Iron Ingots, 20 Steel Ingots, 5 Silver Ingots, 6000G and 400 bond frags. Again, if you had the resources on hand for the Thunder above, you'd have the resources to make this Thoron and still have a bit left over. This Thoron has 23 Mt and 75 Hit (22 Mt without the DLC, but then the Thunder tome would also have 12 Mt).
Damage-wise, Dire Thunder comes out better at this stage of the game than it does later on. Fewer enemies possess Res stats that make Thunder useless, even when the unit's Mag isn't that impressive. Furthermore,
Spoiler
You have no Magic-boosting emblems without the DLC from Ch. 11 to after the Ch. 14 story battle, eliminating an advantage of Thoron during this period. You can still give your Thoron user a bond ring - if you're lucky, you might even have one that gives +2 Mag. But that isn't necessarily going to be available.
However, Dire Thunder's hit advantage is also weakened, as fewer enemies (in fact, I can't recall any) have the Avo to reliably dodge a Mystical unit in the midgame. And your total resources increase relatively dramatically over this part of the game, allowing you to potentially forge up your Thoron further. You're unlikely to hit Thoron+5 for a while after Dire Thunder becomes available, but you should definitely have the resources for it by the end of Ch. 14 at the latest. And your Thoron will still hit very hard all through this period.
It requires a lot of luck, with little possibility for manipulation, to get Olwen this early. And while the benefits of Dire Thunder are at their most impressive early on, using Thoron won't leave you much behind Dire Thunder. If you use a hit engraving on Thoron instead, it'll still be competitive damage for the midgame, while outpacing Dire Thunder later on.
Anyway, there's my case. Dire Thunder isn't necessarily bad, but it is overrated. Thinking long-term, you're better off with Thoron. Is there anything I've missed?
